AI Value Bot Results For Saturday 22nd October 2022
The value bets for today are:
Blackpool -v- Preston 12:30
BACK Blackpool | Predicted 1.99 Actual 2.92 | Edge 47% Probability 50%
Ended 4 – 2 (WIN)
Kilmarnock -v- Ross Co 15:00
BACK Kilmarnock | Predicted 1.53 Actual 1.99 | Edge 30% Probability 66%
Ended 1 – 0 (WIN)
Stoke -v- Coventry 15:00
BACK Stoke | Predicted 1.70 Actual 2.20 | Edge 30% Probability 59%
Ended 0 – 2 (LOSS)
So, if I’d have just taken the bot recommended bots I’d have been slightly up on the day, however, I didn’t!!! My biggest mistake was chasing the probability of Liverpool beating Nottingham Forest. They lost 1 – 0 which proved to be very costly for the day. My bets and results below
I’ve tried to get Kilmarnock at 2.00, and stoke at 2.22 for some extra edge
ALL BETS
Middlesbrough -v- Huddersfield 15:00
BACK Middlesbrough | Predicted 1.86 Actual 1.74 | Edge -6% Probability 54%
LAY Middlesbrough | Predicted 1.86 Actual 1.74 | Edge 8% Probability 46%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.91 Actual 3.90 | Edge -21% Probability 20%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.91 Actual 3.90 | Edge 7% Probability 80%
BACK Huddersfield | Predicted 3.89 Actual 5.70 | Edge 47% Probability 26%
LAY Huddersfield | Predicted 3.89 Actual 5.70 | Edge -10% Probability 74%
Decided to lay the draw, although when I went to place the bet, 3.95 was all I could get
Ended 0 – 0, so I lost -£2.95
Day total: -£2.95
Chelsea -v- Man Utd 17:30
BACK Chelsea | Predicted 2.37 Actual 2.24 | Edge -6% Probability 42%
LAY Chelsea | Predicted 2.37 Actual 2.24 | Edge 5% Probability 58%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.98 Actual 3.60 | Edge -28% Probability 20%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.98 Actual 3.60 | Edge 11% Probability 80%
BACK Man Utd | Predicted 2.65 Actual 3.55 | Edge 34% Probability 38%
LAY Man Utd | Predicted 2.65 Actual 3.55 | Edge -13% Probability 62%
Decided to lay the draw, although when I went to place the bet, 3.60 was waiting to be matched.
Ended 1 – 1, however I watched this game live on Sky as my wife is a Man U fan. When Chelsea eventually scored from a penalty I had a sneaky feeling Man U might equalise, so I did a partial cash out which resulted in a full £0.26 profit!!
Day total: -£2.69
Blackpool -v- Preston 12:30
BACK Blackpool | Predicted 1.99 Actual 2.92 | Edge 47% Probability 50%
LAY Blackpool | Predicted 1.99 Actual 2.92 | Edge -24% Probability 50%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.41 Actual 3.25 | Edge -26% Probability 23%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.41 Actual 3.25 | Edge 12% Probability 77%
BACK Preston | Predicted 3.69 Actual 2.82 | Edge -24% Probability 27%
LAY Preston | Predicted 3.69 Actual 2.82 | Edge 13% Probability 73%
Well this was a recommended value bet but I still decided to avoid due to Blackpool having suspended players and injuries, etc. Mistake in hindsight as Blackpool won 4 – 2
Day total: -£2.69
Man City -v- Brighton 15:00
BACK Man City | Predicted 1.75 Actual 1.24 | Edge -29% Probability 57%
LAY Man City | Predicted 1.75 Actual 1.24 | Edge 122% Probability 43%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.22 Actual 7.40 | Edge 75% Probability 24%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.22 Actual 7.40 | Edge -12% Probability 76%
BACK Brighton | Predicted 5.19 Actual 15.00 | Edge 189% Probability 19%
LAY Brighton | Predicted 5.19 Actual 15.00 | Edge -13% Probability 81%
Didn’t go for anything on this game
Day total: -£2.69
Nottm Forest -v- Liverpool 12:30
BACK Nottm Forest | Predicted 12.40 Actual 13.00 | Edge 5% Probability 8%
LAY Nottm Forest | Predicted 12.40 Actual 13.00 | Edge 0% Probability 92%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 6.90 Actual 6.80 | Edge -1% Probability 15%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 6.90 Actual 6.80 | Edge 0% Probability 85%
BACK Liverpool | Predicted 1.29 Actual 1.28 | Edge -1% Probability 77%
LAY Liverpool | Predicted 1.29 Actual 1.28 | Edge 3% Probability 23%
Waiting to see if I can get the lay on Forest at 12.50 for a slight edge, risking £11.50 though for only £1 return, may prove to be a bad decision! Unfortunately I did get the lay on Forest at 12.50 and they went on to win 1 – 0, so a massive loss on this game of -£11.50
Possibly don’t go chasing probabilities in the future, particularly of there’s little or no edge.
Day total: -£14.19
Rotherham -v- Hull 15:00
BACK Rotherham | Predicted 2.41 Actual 2.52 | Edge 4% Probability 41%
LAY Rotherham | Predicted 2.41 Actual 2.52 | Edge -3% Probability 59%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.23 Actual 3.35 | Edge -21% Probability 24%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.23 Actual 3.35 | Edge 9% Probability 76%
BACK Hull | Predicted 2.86 Actual 3.20 | Edge 12% Probability 35%
LAY Hull | Predicted 2.86 Actual 3.20 | Edge -5% Probability 65%
Trying to get a match on laying the draw at 3.35.
Ended 2 – 4 and I got the match on laying the draw at 3.35 so a full £1 profit here
Day total: -£13.19
Hearts -v- Celtic 12:30
BACK Hearts | Predicted 13.62 Actual 9.20 | Edge -32% Probability 7%
LAY Hearts | Predicted 13.62 Actual 9.20 | Edge 4% Probability 93%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 7.23 Actual 5.70 | Edge -21% Probability 14%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 7.23 Actual 5.70 | Edge 5% Probability 86%
BACK Celtic | Predicted 1.27 Actual 1.39 | Edge 10% Probability 79%
LAY Celtic | Predicted 1.27 Actual 1.39 | Edge -25% Probability 21%
Tried to get the Lay Hearts at 9 for a little more edge
Ended 3 – 4 and I did get the Lay hearts at 9.0 but with all the goals I got nervous and cashed out for £0.25 profit
Day total: -£12.94
Rangers -v- Livingston 15:00
BACK Rangers | Predicted 1.39 Actual 1.23 | Edge -12% Probability 72%
LAY Rangers | Predicted 1.39 Actual 1.23 | Edge 51% Probability 28%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 5.28 Actual 7.80 | Edge 48% Probability 19%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 5.28 Actual 7.80 | Edge -7% Probability 81%
BACK Livingston | Predicted 10.81 Actual 15.50 | Edge 43% Probability 9%
LAY Livingston | Predicted 10.81 Actual 15.50 | Edge -3% Probability 91%
Didn’t bet on this one.
Day total: -£12.94
Everton -v- Crystal Palace 15:00
BACK Everton | Predicted 2.27 Actual 2.72 | Edge 20% Probability 44%
LAY Everton | Predicted 2.27 Actual 2.72 | Edge -11% Probability 56%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.50 Actual 3.15 | Edge -30% Probability 22%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.50 Actual 3.15 | Edge 14% Probability 78%
BACK Crystal Palace | Predicted 2.96 Actual 3.10 | Edge 5% Probability 34%
LAY Crystal Palace | Predicted 2.96 Actual 3.10 | Edge -2% Probability 66%
Trying to get a match on laying the draw at 3.15
Ended 3 – 0 and I did get the lay at 3.15 to win a £1.00
Day total: -£11.94
Motherwell -v- Aberdeen 15:00
BACK Motherwell | Predicted 2.79 Actual 2.72 | Edge -2% Probability 36%
LAY Motherwell | Predicted 2.79 Actual 2.72 | Edge 1% Probability 64%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.82 Actual 3.35 | Edge -12% Probability 26%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.82 Actual 3.35 | Edge 5% Probability 74%
BACK Aberdeen | Predicted 2.64 Actual 2.82 | Edge 7% Probability 38%
LAY Aberdeen | Predicted 2.64 Actual 2.82 | Edge -4% Probability 62%
Trying to get a match on lay the draw at 3.35
Ended 1 – 2, and I did get the match on laying the draw at 3.35, so I won a £1.00
Day total: -£10.94
Stoke -v- Coventry 15:00
BACK Stoke | Predicted 1.70 Actual 2.20 | Edge 30% Probability 59%
LAY Stoke | Predicted 1.70 Actual 2.20 | Edge -25% Probability 41%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.62 Actual 3.60 | Edge -22% Probability 22%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.62 Actual 3.60 | Edge 9% Probability 78%
BACK Coventry | Predicted 5.16 Actual 3.70 | Edge -28% Probability 19%
LAY Coventry | Predicted 5.16 Actual 3.70 | Edge 10% Probability 81%
Ended 0 – 2 but didn’t get a bet on
Day total: -£10.94
Sheff Utd -v- Norwich 15:00
BACK Sheff Utd | Predicted 2.58 Actual 2.36 | Edge -9% Probability 39%
LAY Sheff Utd | Predicted 2.58 Actual 2.36 | Edge 6% Probability 61%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.80 Actual 3.50 | Edge -8% Probability 26%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.80 Actual 3.50 | Edge 3% Probability 74%
BACK Norwich | Predicted 2.86 Actual 3.35 | Edge 17% Probability 35%
LAY Norwich | Predicted 2.86 Actual 3.35 | Edge -7% Probability 65%
Tried to get a match on lay the draw at 3.45 for some extra edge
Ended 2 – 2, I actually got a match at 3.35 but it didn’t help me much, lost -£2.35
Day total: -£13.29
Sunderland -v- Burnley 15:00
BACK Sunderland | Predicted 2.91 Actual 3.45 | Edge 19% Probability 34%
LAY Sunderland | Predicted 2.91 Actual 3.45 | Edge -8% Probability 66%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.88 Actual 3.30 | Edge -15% Probability 26%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.88 Actual 3.30 | Edge 6% Probability 74%
BACK Burnley | Predicted 2.51 Actual 2.42 | Edge -4% Probability 40%
LAY Burnley | Predicted 2.51 Actual 2.42 | Edge 3% Probability 60%
Tried to get a match on lay the draw at 3.25 for some extra edge
Ended 2 – 4, and I did get a match on laying the draw at 3.25 so I won a £1.00
Day total: -£12.29
Millwall -v- West Brom 15:00
BACK Millwall | Predicted 3.14 Actual 2.78 | Edge -11% Probability 32%
LAY Millwall | Predicted 3.14 Actual 2.78 | Edge 6% Probability 68%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.41 Actual 3.25 | Edge -5% Probability 29%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.41 Actual 3.25 | Edge 2% Probability 71%
BACK West Brom | Predicted 2.57 Actual 2.96 | Edge 15% Probability 39%
LAY West Brom | Predicted 2.57 Actual 2.96 | Edge -8% Probability 61%
Tried to get a match on lay the draw at 3.20 for some extra edge
Ended 2 – 1, and I did get a match on laying the draw at 3.20 so I won a £1.00
Day total: -£11.29
Reading -v- Bristol City 15:00
BACK Reading | Predicted 2.91 Actual 2.64 | Edge -9% Probability 34%
LAY Reading | Predicted 2.91 Actual 2.64 | Edge 6% Probability 66%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.46 Actual 3.50 | Edge 1% Probability 29%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.46 Actual 3.50 | Edge 0% Probability 71%
BACK Bristol City | Predicted 2.72 Actual 2.92 | Edge 7% Probability 37%
LAY Bristol City | Predicted 2.72 Actual 2.92 | Edge -4% Probability 63%
Ended 2 – 0 but didn’t get a bet on
Day total: -£11.29
QPR -v- Wigan 15:00
BACK QPR | Predicted 1.79 Actual 1.99 | Edge 11% Probability 56%
LAY QPR | Predicted 1.79 Actual 1.99 | Edge -12% Probability 44%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.44 Actual 3.55 | Edge -20% Probability 23%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.44 Actual 3.55 | Edge 8% Probability 77%
BACK Wigan | Predicted 4.66 Actual 4.50 | Edge -3% Probability 21%
LAY Wigan | Predicted 4.66 Actual 4.50 | Edge 1% Probability 79%
Tried to Lay Wigan at 4.40 for some extra edge
Ended 2 – 1, and I did get a match on laying the draw at 4.40 so I won a £1.00
Day total: -£10.29
St Mirren -v- Dundee Utd 15:00
BACK St Mirren | Predicted 1.87 Actual 2.12 | Edge 14% Probability 54%
LAY St Mirren | Predicted 1.87 Actual 2.12 | Edge -12% Probability 46%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.47 Actual 3.40 | Edge -24% Probability 22%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.47 Actual 3.40 | Edge 10% Probability 78%
BACK Dundee Utd | Predicted 4.16 Actual 3.95 | Edge -5% Probability 24%
LAY Dundee Utd | Predicted 4.16 Actual 3.95 | Edge 2% Probability 76%
Tried to match Lay the draw for 3.25
Ended 2 – 1, and I did get a match on laying the draw at 3.25 so I won a £1.00
Day total: -£9.29
Blackburn -v- Birmingham 15:00
BACK Blackburn | Predicted 2.23 Actual 2.22 | Edge 0% Probability 45%
LAY Blackburn | Predicted 2.23 Actual 2.22 | Edge 0% Probability 55%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.83 Actual 3.35 | Edge -12% Probability 26%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.83 Actual 3.35 | Edge 5% Probability 74%
BACK Birmingham | Predicted 3.45 Actual 3.95 | Edge 15% Probability 29%
LAY Birmingham | Predicted 3.45 Actual 3.95 | Edge -5% Probability 71%
Tried to match lay the draw at 3.3 for extra edge
Ended 2 – 1, and I did get a match on laying the draw at 3.30 so I won a £1.00
Day total: -£8.29
Kilmarnock -v- Ross Co 15:00
BACK Kilmarnock | Predicted 1.53 Actual 1.99 | Edge 30% Probability 66%
LAY Kilmarnock | Predicted 1.53 Actual 1.99 | Edge -31% Probability 34%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.81 Actual 3.35 | Edge -30% Probability 21%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.81 Actual 3.35 | Edge 13% Probability 79%
BACK Ross Co | Predicted 7.32 Actual 4.60 | Edge -37% Probability 14%
LAY Ross Co | Predicted 7.32 Actual 4.60 | Edge 10% Probability 86%
Ended 1 – 0
I layed Ross Co on this one but I cashed out very early for £0.08 profit
Day total: -£8.21
Profit for the day: -£8.21
Total Profit: -£7.65
So overall a terrible day of betting all because of Liverpool losing to Forest, would have been up otherwise!
