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Martin Gilliard

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Comprehensive Guide to Using a Matched Betting Calculator

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Here’s a comprehensive guide to using a matched betting calculator:

What is a Matched Betting Calculator?

A matched betting calculator is an essential tool that helps bettors determine the optimal stakes for back and lay bets to ensure a profit regardless of the event outcome[1][2]. It takes the guesswork out of matched betting by providing precise calculations.

Key Functions

Matched betting calculators typically offer the following functions:

  • Back/Lay Bet Calculator: Calculates the lay stake needed to cover all outcomes when placing a back bet with a bookmaker and a lay bet on an exchange[2].

  • Free Bet Calculator: Determines the optimal lay stake to maximize profit from free bet offers[2].

  • Qualifying Bet Calculator: Minimizes losses on qualifying bets required to unlock free bets or promotions[2].

  • Each-Way Bet Calculator: Handles calculations for each-way bets[2].

How to Use a Matched Betting Calculator

Step 1: Choose the Right Calculator

Select the appropriate calculator based on your bet type (e.g. qualifying bet, free bet stake not returned, free bet stake returned)[1][2].

Step 2: Enter Back Bet Details

  • Back Stake: Enter the amount you’re staking with the bookmaker
  • Back Odds: Input the odds offered by the bookmaker[2]

Step 3: Enter Lay Bet Details

  • Lay Odds: Enter the odds available on the betting exchange
  • Commission: Input the exchange’s commission rate (usually 2-5%)[2]

Step 4: Calculate Lay Stake

The calculator will provide the exact lay stake needed to place on the betting exchange to cover all outcomes[2].

Step 5: Place the Bets

  • Place the back bet with the bookmaker
  • Immediately place the calculated lay bet on the exchange[2]

Advanced Features

Some calculators offer advanced modes that allow you to:

  • Specify commission on back bets (for exchange-to-exchange bets)
  • Adjust lay stakes for underlaying or overlaying
  • View impacts on liability and profit/loss with custom stake adjustments[3]

Formulas Used in Matched Betting Calculators

While calculators handle the math, understanding the underlying formulas can be helpful:

Qualifying Bet / Welcome Bet

Optimal lay stake = (back odds * back stake) / (lay odds – commission)[4]

Free Bet – Stake Not Returned (SNR)

Optimal lay stake = ((back odds – 1) / (lay odds – commission)) * free bet size[4]

Free Bet – Stake Returned (SR)

Optimal lay stake = (back odds * free bet value) / (lay odds – commission)[4]

Tips for Using Matched Betting Calculators

  1. Double-check all entries to avoid costly errors
  2. Use live odds to ensure accuracy
  3. Practice with small stakes when starting out
  4. Keep detailed records of your bets
  5. Utilize integrated tools like oddsmatchers when available[2]

By mastering the use of matched betting calculators, you can maximize profits and minimize risks in your matched betting endeavors. Remember to always double-check your calculations and place bets promptly to lock in the desired odds.

Citations:
[1] https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/articles/115000350131-How-to-calculate-matched-betting-bets
[2] https://london-post.co.uk/mastering-matched-betting-calculators-a-step-by-step-guide-for-beginners/
[3] https://outplayed.com/calculator
[4] https://www.oddsmonkey.com/matched-betting/matched-betting-maths-formulas/
[5] https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/matched-betting-calculator/
[6] https://matchedbettingblog.com/matched-betting-calculator/
[7] https://www.oddsmonkey.com/matched-betting/calculator/
[8] https://www.reddit.com/r/beermoneyuk/comments/1b31qse/tightasf_cks_guide_to_matched_betting_and/

Step-by-Step Guide to Placing Back and Lay Bets in Matched Betting

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Here’s a step-by-step guide to placing back and lay bets in matched betting:

Step 1: Find a Suitable Betting Opportunity

  • Identify a bookmaker offering a free bet or bonus
  • Use an odds matching tool to find close back and lay odds between the bookmaker and betting exchange

Step 2: Place the Qualifying Back Bet

  • Log into your bookmaker account
  • Navigate to the chosen event and select your back bet
  • Enter your stake amount (typically the minimum to qualify for the free bet)
  • Double check all details and place the back bet

Step 3: Place the Matching Lay Bet

  • Log into your betting exchange account
  • Find the same event and betting market
  • Select the lay bet option
  • Use a matched betting calculator to determine your optimal lay stake
  • Enter the lay stake amount
  • Ensure you have sufficient funds to cover the liability
  • Double check all details and place the lay bet

Step 4: Record Your Bets

  • Note down all the details of both bets for tracking purposes

Step 5: Place the Free Bet

  • Once you receive your free bet, repeat steps 1-4
  • Use the “Free Bet” setting on your matched betting calculator
  • Place the back bet with your free bet stake
  • Place the corresponding lay bet at the exchange

Key Points to Remember

  • Always place the back bet before the lay bet[2]
  • Double check you’re using the correct calculator setting (qualifying vs free bet)[3]
  • Ensure you have enough funds in your exchange account to cover the lay liability[3]
  • Place bets well before event start times to avoid unmatched bets[3]

By following these steps carefully, you can execute matched bets effectively and minimize errors. Remember that attention to detail is crucial in matched betting to ensure you lock in profits consistently.

Citations:
[1] https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/articles/115000350131-How-to-calculate-matched-betting-bets
[2] https://outplayed.com/what-is-matched-betting
[3] https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/matched-betting-tips/matched-betting-mistakes/
[4] https://outplayed.com/what-is-lay-betting-or-laying
[5] https://profitpineapple.com/what-are-back-bets-and-lay-bets-in-matched-betting/
[6] https://matchedbettingblog.com/topic/backing-and-laying-on-underover-markets/
[7] https://www.oddsmonkey.com/matched-betting/lay-betting-explained-beginners-guide/
[8] https://www.oddsmonkey.com/matched-betting/what-is-matched-betting/

Common Mistakes to Avoid in Matched Betting

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Here are some of the most common mistakes to avoid in matched betting:

Overlooking Terms and Conditions

One of the biggest pitfalls is failing to carefully review the terms and conditions of betting offers[1]. This can lead to:

  • Missing important requirements for qualifying bets
  • Not meeting wagering requirements for bonuses
  • Placing bets on ineligible markets or events

Always thoroughly read the fine print before placing any bets to ensure you meet all the offer criteria.

Using Incorrect Calculator Settings

Having the wrong settings in your matched betting calculator can significantly impact profitability[1]. Common errors include:

  • Not accounting for commission fees
  • Using decimal odds instead of fractional odds
  • Inputting incorrect stake amounts

Double-check all calculator inputs before placing bets to avoid costly miscalculations.

Placing Bets in the Wrong Order

The sequence of placing back and lay bets is crucial[1]. Placing them in the wrong order can result in:

  • Unmatched bets
  • Incorrect liability calculations
  • Potential losses instead of profits

Always place the back bet first, then the lay bet to maintain the proper matched betting structure.

Insufficient Exchange Funds

Not having enough money in your betting exchange account can disrupt the matched betting process[3]. This may lead to:

  • Delays in placing lay bets
  • Missing out on favorable odds
  • Incomplete matched bets

Ensure you have adequate funds in your exchange account before starting any matched betting.

Unmatched or Partially Matched Bets

Placing bets without sufficient liquidity in the exchange can result in unmatched or partially matched bets[3]. This can cause:

  • Imbalanced back and lay bets
  • Unwanted exposure and potential losses
  • Missed opportunities due to changing odds

Always check there is enough liquidity before placing lay bets and be prepared to adjust if needed.

Becoming Complacent

As matched betting becomes more familiar, it’s easy to become complacent and make careless mistakes[3]. Avoid:

  • Rushing through bet placements
  • Not double-checking details
  • Multitasking while placing bets

Stay focused and maintain attention to detail, even as you gain experience.

By being aware of these common pitfalls and taking steps to avoid them, you can maximize your matched betting profits and minimize costly errors. Careful planning, attention to detail, and consistent execution are key to successful matched betting.

Citations:
[1] https://www.westlondonsport.com/sport/common-pitfalls-in-matched-betting
[2] https://www.multimillionaireroad.com/2018/11/matched-betting-mistakes-to-avoid.html
[3] https://outplayed.com/blog/matched-betting-mistakes
[4] https://profitpineapple.com/top-5-most-common-matched-betting-mistakes/
[5] https://caanberry.com/matched-betting-mistakes/
[6] https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/matched-betting-tips/matched-betting-mistakes/
[7] https://www.oddsmonkey.com/blog/matched-betting/common-mistakes-to-avoid-when-matched-betting/
[8] https://matchedbettingblog.com/topic/costly-mistakes-and-damage-control/

Understanding Liquidity Changes in Betting Exchanges as Event Time Approaches

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Liquidity in betting exchanges tends to increase as the event time approaches due to several key factors:

Increased Market Confidence

As the event draws closer, more information becomes available, leading to:

  • Greater certainty about factors like team selections, injury news, and conditions[4]
  • Reduced uncertainty built into initial pricing[4]
  • Increased confidence among bettors and traders in assessing the odds

This increased confidence encourages more participants to enter the market, boosting liquidity.

Influx of Smart Money

As the start time nears:

  • Sharp bettors identify value opportunities and place larger bets[4]
  • Their activity helps drive the odds closer to the “true price”
  • This attracts more volume from other market participants

Time-Based Factors

Several time-related elements contribute to liquidity growth:

  • More casual bettors place wagers closer to event start
  • Traders and market makers adjust their positions
  • Last-minute news and updates can spark betting activity

Market Equilibrium

The betting exchange market tends to reach a more efficient equilibrium as the event approaches:

  • Increased betting volume helps balance the back and lay sides[4]
  • Bid-ask spreads typically tighten, reflecting greater market efficiency[3]
  • The “wisdom of the crowds” effect becomes more pronounced with higher participation[4]

Liquidity Snowball Effect

As liquidity grows, it often creates a positive feedback loop:

  • More available liquidity attracts larger bets
  • Larger bets encourage more market makers and traders to participate
  • This cycle continues, further boosting overall market liquidity

It’s important to note that while liquidity generally increases, it can still fluctuate rapidly based on breaking news or large bets, especially in the final moments before an event starts[1]. Matched bettors and other market participants should always check the current liquidity before placing bets, as it can change quickly[2].

Citations:
[1] https://outplayed.com/blog/matched-betting-liquidity
[2] https://www.oddsmonkey.com/blog/matched-betting/what-is-liquidity/
[3] https://conordurkin.com/liquidity-in-sports-betting-markets/
[4] https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/articles/214559905-Why-do-betting-odds-change
[5] https://forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?t=12119
[6] https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2024/06/the-impact-of-betting-exchanges-on-the-sports-betting-market-in-the-uk/
[7] https://help.oddsmonkey.com/hc/en-gb/articles/10270035185693-What-Is-Liquidity
[8] https://outplayed.com/blog/what-is-a-betting-exchange

Understanding Liquidity in Betting Exchanges: Its Impact on Bet Matching and Strategies for Effective Use

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Understanding liquidity in betting exchanges is crucial for successful matched betting. Here’s a comprehensive overview of liquidity and its impact:

What is Liquidity in Betting Exchanges?

Liquidity refers to the maximum amount of money available for placing a lay bet on a betting exchange[1][2]. It represents the total stakes of back bettors willing to bet on a particular outcome at specific odds[1].

How Liquidity Affects Bet Matching

The amount of liquidity directly impacts whether your lay bet will be fully matched:

  • If the liquidity is greater than or equal to your required lay stake, your bet will be immediately and fully matched[1].
  • If the liquidity is less than your required lay stake, your bet will either remain unmatched or only partially matched[2].

Identifying Liquidity

You can easily identify the available liquidity on betting exchanges:

  • It’s displayed underneath the lay odds for each selection[1][2].
  • On oddsmatcher software, you can check the “Available” column to see the liquidity for each bet[1].

Liquidity Fluctuations

Liquidity on betting exchanges is dynamic and can change frequently due to:

  • New bettors joining and placing bets
  • Existing bettors canceling their bets
  • The popularity and timing of the event[1]

Strategies for Dealing with Liquidity

To effectively use betting exchanges, consider these strategies:

  1. Always check liquidity before placing a back bet with a bookmaker[2].
  2. Use the oddsmatcher’s “Availability” filter to show only bets with sufficient liquidity[1].
  3. Be cautious with less popular events or markets far in advance, as they may have lower liquidity[1].
  4. Have accounts with multiple exchanges (e.g., Betfair and Smarkets) to access different liquidity pools[3].

Comparing Exchanges: Liquidity Considerations

When choosing between betting exchanges, consider their liquidity differences:

  • Betfair generally has higher liquidity due to its larger user base and popularity among traders[3].
  • Smarkets may have lower liquidity for some markets but often catches up as events get closer to starting[3].

By understanding and effectively managing liquidity, you can ensure your lay bets are fully matched and maximize your matched betting success.

Citations: [1] https://outplayed.com/blog/matched-betting-liquidity
[2] https://profitpineapple.com/what-is-liquidity-in-matched-betting/
[3] https://matchedbettingblog.com/betfair-v-smarkets/
[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsuNNrUDsyQ
[5] https://www.olbg.com/bookmakers/articles/best-betting-exchanges
[6] https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/matched-betting-tips/best-betting-exchange/
[7] https://support.betfair.com/app/answers/detail/250-exchange-games-what-is-the-liquidity-amount-available-to-bet/
[8] https://www.teamprofit.com/what-is-liquidity-in-matched-betting

Can You Explain More About The Role Of Betting Exchanges In Matched Betting?

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Betting exchanges play a crucial role in matched betting by allowing bettors to both back and lay bets. Here are the key aspects of how betting exchanges function in matched betting:

Back and Lay Betting

Betting exchanges allow users to both back and lay bets:

  • Back betting is betting for an outcome to happen, similar to traditional bookmaker betting.
  • Lay betting is betting against an outcome, essentially taking on the role of the bookmaker[1].

This ability to lay bets is fundamental to matched betting, as it allows bettors to offset their back bets placed at bookmakers.

How It Works in Matched Betting

  1. A bettor places a back bet at a bookmaker, often using a free bet or promotion.
  2. They then place a corresponding lay bet on the same event at a betting exchange.
  3. This covers all possible outcomes, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the result[2].

Advantages of Betting Exchanges

  • Better Odds: Exchanges often offer better odds than traditional bookmakers[3].
  • No Bookmaker Margin: Odds are set by users, eliminating the bookmaker’s profit margin[1].
  • Flexibility: Bettors can act as both punters and bookmakers.

Commission Structure

Betting exchanges make money by charging a small commission (usually 2-5%) on winning bets[3]. This is different from traditional bookmakers, who build their profit into the odds they offer.

The two main betting exchanges used for matched betting in the UK are:

  1. Betfair: Offers high liquidity and a wide range of markets. They have a standard 5% commission, but offer a reduced 2% rate for new customers[1].

  2. Smarkets: Known for its consistently low 2% commission rate and modern interface[1].

Importance in Matched Betting

Betting exchanges are essential for matched betting because:

  • They allow for lay betting, which is necessary to guarantee profit.
  • Their commission rates are generally lower than bookmaker margins.
  • They provide the liquidity needed to place large bets and find matches for obscure markets.

By understanding and effectively using betting exchanges, matched bettors can maximize their profits and take full advantage of bookmaker promotions.

Citations:
[1] https://ftsincome.co.uk/choosing-the-right-betting-exchange-for-matched-betting-uk-a-comparison-guide/
[2] https://seon.io/resources/dictionary/matched-betting/
[3] https://matchedbettingblog.com/what-is-a-betting-exchange/
[4]https://www.reddit.com/r/matchedbetting/comments/18e73l1/can_i_do_match_betting_without_an_exchange/
[5] https://matchedbettingblog.com/matched-betting-guide/
[6] https://outplayed.com/what-is-a-betting-exchange
[7] https://profitrush.com/guides/understanding-betting-exchanges/
[8] https://www.teamprofit.com/what-is-liquidity-in-matched-betting

football stadium

AI Value Bet Results For Jan 5th 2023

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Profit for the day: £0.00, Total Profit: -£12.35

RECOMMENDED BETS

Sorry, no recommended bets today

ALL BETS

Chelsea -v- Man City 20:00
BACK Chelsea | Predicted 9.80 Actual 5.60 | Edge -43% Probability 10%
LAY Chelsea | Predicted 9.80 Actual 5.60 | Edge 9% Probability 90%
BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.59 Actual 4.20 | Edge -8% Probability 22%
LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.59 Actual 4.20 | Edge 3% Probability 78%
BACK Man City | Predicted 1.47 Actual 1.70 | Edge 16% Probability 68%
LAY Man City | Predicted 1.47 Actual 1.70 | Edge -22% Probability 32%

football ref

AI Value Bet Results For January 4th 2023

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Profit for the day: -£1.16, Total Profit: -£12.35

RECOMMENDED BETS

 

Crystal Palace -v- Tottenham 20:00

LAY Tottenham | Predicted 3.00 Actual 2.16 | Edge 24% Probability 67%

The game ended 0 – 5 so I lost £1.16

 

ALL BETS

 

Aston Villa -v- Wolves 20:00

BACK Aston Villa | Predicted 1.75 Actual 2.06 | Edge 18% Probability 57% LAY Aston Villa | Predicted 1.75 Actual 2.06 | Edge -17% Probability 43% BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.08 Actual 3.60 | Edge -12% Probability 24% LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.08 Actual 3.60 | Edge 5% Probability 76% BACK Wolves | Predicted 5.42 Actual 4.20 | Edge -23% Probability 18% LAY Wolves | Predicted 5.42 Actual 4.20 | Edge 7% Probability 82%

 

Crystal Palace -v- Tottenham 20:00

BACK Crystal Palace | Predicted 2.48 Actual 3.80 | Edge 53% Probability 40% LAY Crystal Palace | Predicted 2.48 Actual 3.80 | Edge -19% Probability 60% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.80 Actual 3.60 | Edge -5% Probability 26% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.80 Actual 3.60 | Edge 2% Probability 74% BACK Tottenham | Predicted 3.00 Actual 2.16 | Edge -28% Probability 33% LAY Tottenham | Predicted 3.00 Actual 2.16 | Edge 24% Probability 67%

 

Leeds -v- West Ham 19:45

BACK Leeds | Predicted 3.15 Actual 2.84 | Edge -10% Probability 32% LAY Leeds | Predicted 3.15 Actual 2.84 | Edge 5% Probability 68% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.36 Actual 3.50 | Edge 4% Probability 30% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.36 Actual 3.50 | Edge -2% Probability 70% BACK West Ham | Predicted 2.59 Actual 2.74 | Edge 6% Probability 39% LAY West Ham | Predicted 2.59 Actual 2.74 | Edge -3% Probability 61%

 

Southampton -v- Nottm Forest 19:30

BACK Southampton | Predicted 1.98 Actual 2.28 | Edge 15% Probability 50% LAY Southampton | Predicted 1.98 Actual 2.28 | Edge -12% Probability 50% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.39 Actual 3.50 | Edge 3% Probability 29% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.39 Actual 3.50 | Edge -1% Probability 71% BACK Nottm Forest | Predicted 4.98 Actual 3.55 | Edge -29% Probability 20% LAY Nottm Forest | Predicted 4.98 Actual 3.55 | Edge 11% Probability 80%

AI Value Bet Results For Saturday 31st December 2022

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Profit for the day: -£1.04, Total Profit: -£11.19

RECOMMENDED BETS

 

Brighton -v- Arsenal 17:30

LAY Arsenal | Predicted 2.81 Actual 2.04 | Edge 26% Probability 64%

The game ended 2 – 4 so I lost £1.04

 

ALL BETS

 

Wolves -v- Man Utd 12:30

BACK Wolves | Predicted 5.06 Actual 4.30 | Edge -15% Probability 20% LAY Wolves | Predicted 5.06 Actual 4.30 | Edge 5% Probability 80% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.17 Actual 3.70 | Edge 17% Probability 32% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.17 Actual 3.70 | Edge -6% Probability 68% BACK Man Utd | Predicted 2.06 Actual 1.99 | Edge -3% Probability 49% LAY Man Utd | Predicted 2.06 Actual 1.99 | Edge 3% Probability 51%

 

Man City -v- Everton 15:00

BACK Man City | Predicted 1.29 Actual 1.16 | Edge -10% Probability 77% LAY Man City | Predicted 1.29 Actual 1.16 | Edge 64% Probability 23% BACK The Draw | Predicted 5.35 Actual 10.00 | Edge 87% Probability 19% LAY The Draw | Predicted 5.35 Actual 10.00 | Edge -10% Probability 81% BACK Everton | Predicted 25.85 Actual 24.00 | Edge -7% Probability 4% LAY Everton | Predicted 25.85 Actual 24.00 | Edge 0% Probability 96%

 

Newcastle -v- Leeds 15:00

BACK Newcastle | Predicted 1.38 Actual 1.48 | Edge 7% Probability 72% LAY Newcastle | Predicted 1.38 Actual 1.48 | Edge -15% Probability 28% BACK The Draw | Predicted 5.24 Actual 5.00 | Edge -5% Probability 19% LAY The Draw | Predicted 5.24 Actual 5.00 | Edge 1% Probability 81% BACK Leeds | Predicted 11.70 Actual 7.60 | Edge -35% Probability 9% LAY Leeds | Predicted 11.70 Actual 7.60 | Edge 5% Probability 91%

 

Brighton -v- Arsenal 17:30

BACK Brighton | Predicted 2.86 Actual 4.10 | Edge 43% Probability 35% LAY Brighton | Predicted 2.86 Actual 4.10 | Edge -14% Probability 65% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.39 Actual 3.70 | Edge 9% Probability 29% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.39 Actual 3.70 | Edge -3% Probability 71% BACK Arsenal | Predicted 2.81 Actual 2.04 | Edge -27% Probability 36% LAY Arsenal | Predicted 2.81 Actual 2.04 | Edge 26% Probability 64%

 

Bournemouth -v- Crystal Palace 15:00

BACK Bournemouth | Predicted 3.45 Actual 2.86 | Edge -17% Probability 29% LAY Bournemouth | Predicted 3.45 Actual 2.86 | Edge 9% Probability 71% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.47 Actual 3.25 | Edge -6% Probability 29% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.47 Actual 3.25 | Edge 3% Probability 71% BACK Crystal Palace | Predicted 2.37 Actual 2.86 | Edge 21% Probability 42% LAY Crystal Palace | Predicted 2.37 Actual 2.86 | Edge -11% Probability 58%

 

Fulham -v- Southampton 15:00

BACK Fulham | Predicted 1.86 Actual 1.88 | Edge 1% Probability 54% LAY Fulham | Predicted 1.86 Actual 1.88 | Edge -1% Probability 46% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.12 Actual 4.00 | Edge 28% Probability 32% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.12 Actual 4.00 | Edge -9% Probability 68% BACK Southampton | Predicted 7.08 Actual 4.50 | Edge -36% Probability 14% LAY Southampton | Predicted 7.08 Actual 4.50 | Edge 10% Probability 86%

football

AI Value Bet Results For Friday 30th December 2022

0

Profit for the day: £1.00, Total Profit: -£10.15

RECOMMENDED BETS

 

Norwich -v- Reading 19:45

LAY Norwich | Predicted 2.77 Actual 1.74 | Edge 50% Probability 64%

The game ended 1 – 1, so I won £1.00

 

ALL BETS

 

West Ham -v- Brentford 19:45

BACK West Ham | Predicted 1.82 Actual 2.08 | Edge 14% Probability 55% LAY West Ham | Predicted 1.82 Actual 2.08 | Edge -13% Probability 45% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.24 Actual 3.70 | Edge 14% Probability 31% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.24 Actual 3.70 | Edge -5% Probability 69% BACK Brentford | Predicted 6.99 Actual 3.95 | Edge -44% Probability 14% LAY Brentford | Predicted 6.99 Actual 3.95 | Edge 15% Probability 86%

 

Liverpool -v- Leicester 20:00

BACK Liverpool | Predicted 1.75 Actual 1.33 | Edge -24% Probability 57% LAY Liverpool | Predicted 1.75 Actual 1.33 | Edge 72% Probability 43% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.47 Actual 6.20 | Edge 79% Probability 29% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.47 Actual 6.20 | Edge -15% Probability 71% BACK Leicester | Predicted 7.17 Actual 11.00 | Edge 53% Probability 14% LAY Leicester | Predicted 7.17 Actual 11.00 | Edge -5% Probability 86%

 

Stoke -v- Burnley 19:45

BACK Stoke | Predicted 4.17 Actual 3.55 | Edge -15% Probability 24% LAY Stoke | Predicted 4.17 Actual 3.55 | Edge 6% Probability 76% BACK The Draw | Predicted 4.14 Actual 3.50 | Edge -16% Probability 24% LAY The Draw | Predicted 4.14 Actual 3.50 | Edge 6% Probability 76% BACK Burnley | Predicted 1.93 Actual 2.26 | Edge 17% Probability 52% LAY Burnley | Predicted 1.93 Actual 2.26 | Edge -14% Probability 48%

 

Norwich -v- Reading 19:45

BACK Norwich | Predicted 2.77 Actual 1.74 | Edge -37% Probability 36% LAY Norwich | Predicted 2.77 Actual 1.74 | Edge 50% Probability 64% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.12 Actual 3.90 | Edge 25% Probability 32% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.12 Actual 3.90 | Edge -9% Probability 68% BACK Reading | Predicted 3.14 Actual 5.70 | Edge 81% Probability 32% LAY Reading | Predicted 3.14 Actual 5.70 | Edge -17% Probability 68%

 

Swansea -v- Watford 19:45

BACK Swansea | Predicted 2.44 Actual 2.10 | Edge -14% Probability 41% LAY Swansea | Predicted 2.44 Actual 2.10 | Edge 13% Probability 59% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.47 Actual 3.55 | Edge 2% Probability 29% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.47 Actual 3.55 | Edge -1% Probability 71% BACK Watford | Predicted 3.31 Actual 4.00 | Edge 21% Probability 30% LAY Watford | Predicted 3.31 Actual 4.00 | Edge -7% Probability 70%

 

Birmingham -v- Hull 19:45

BACK Birmingham | Predicted 2.63 Actual 2.14 | Edge -19% Probability 38% LAY Birmingham | Predicted 2.63 Actual 2.14 | Edge 16% Probability 62% BACK The Draw | Predicted 3.48 Actual 3.35 | Edge -4% Probability 29% LAY The Draw | Predicted 3.48 Actual 3.35 | Edge 2% Probability 71% BACK Hull | Predicted 3.00 Actual 4.20 | Edge 40% Probability 33% LAY Hull | Predicted 3.00 Actual 4.20 | Edge -12% Probability 67%

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